2 – Colourful or Colourless Protests?
BSSB.BE globalresearch.ca 28.01.2016
The Coming Weeks
Having familiarized the reader with the structure of the Moldovan state, the paradox facing its security services, and the organic form of Color Revolution protest that’s recently sprouted up, it’s now possible to project the direction that the country is going in:
There are no indications that the protests will let up any time soon, thus accelerating the chances that the protesters and security services will come to blows in the coming future. The ruling coalition’s viability is directly dependent on whether or not they order the police and related forces to crack down on the demonstrators, and the loyalty of these units is also a factor that shouldn’t be fully assumed.
Depending on the chain of violence that breaks out after the first significant clashes, the police, many of whom are just regular Moldovans like the protesters themselves, might not agree with carrying out the further heavy-handed or lethal orders that they may be given, raising the chances for an outright mutiny, or at the very least, passively allowing the protesters to access parliament and other state institutions that they’re supposed to defend.
- If the escalation of violence reaches an unprecedented level, then the protesters might likely begin engaging in selective Unconventional Warfare tactics, be it Molotov-bombing certain governmental structures or shooting at police.
- If this happens, then daytime curfews and even martial law might be implemented in Chisinau until the authorities can return the situation to order, but by that time, the critical mass of anti-government demonstrators might be too much to handle without further escalating the violence threshold.
- Remembering the “gatekeepers’ paradox” that was described earlier in the work, the state might unintentionally aggravate the situation beyond its control, thus contributing to a large-scale breakdown in security and the further deterioration of the situation in the capital.
As a flailing last resort, it may request some form of overt or covert foreign intervention to prop up its authority, perhaps manifested by some nature of Romanian assistance. In the absence of a committed foreign patron, the weak Moldovan government will almost certainly fall to the protesters with time, barring of course an indiscriminate rampage of state-directed terror that scares the more moderate protesters (assumed to be the overwhelming majority of them) into submission.
The Ultimate Distraction:
In parallel to the abovementioned scenario or in place of it, the Moldovan authorities might try to desperately divert attention from the intensified flare-up of anti-government activity by engaging in a provocation against Transnistria. Relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol are already quite frosty, made even worse by Moldova and Ukraine’s coordinated efforts at attempting a blockade of the region.
From an American strategic standpoint, Russia may not be able to sustain a concentrated military-strategic focus on Eastern Ukraine, Syria, and Transnistria simultaneously, especially since Moscow does not have direct access to the latter nor does it have any neighboring allied states that it can use to access the potential battlefield (as it does with Iran and Iraq vis-à-vis the Caspian Corridor to Syria).
Although a risky gambit by any forecast, Moldova’s pro-Western ruling coalition might attempt this scenario as a last-ditch effort to stave off their overthrow, hoping that a continuation war in Transnistria would lead to NATO military support in some capacity that could then be diverted towards squashing the protesters. It may appear like a short-sighted plan to most readers, but they’d do well to consider that a government which is truly on the rocks can only resort to short-sighted policies for its immediate survival.
Euroskepticism Economy Crisis
- project-syndicate.org – Europe`s on the Brink. History tells us that the answer is an emphatic no. Sixty years ago, with Europe’s economy reeling from the destruction caused by World War II, Europe’s leaders lifted their eyes above daily hardships to shape a more hopeful future, underpinned by European integration. That same vision and foresight is needed today, and the European Union, with its unmatched ability to facilitate regional cooperation, will remain essential. It is time for Europe’s leaders to break the decades-old habit of pursuing half-baked projects that blunt the symptoms of crises, and to implement real reforms that address the root causes. Only with a new approach – and tangible progress – can solidarity within Europe be regained. Nonetheless, the EU and its institutions remain integral to efforts to respond to challenges that require a united front – challenges like those that Europe faces today.
- md – All eyes on Chisinau. During the meeting from today, the protesters voted unanimously a resolution through which they state the definitive seizure of all state institutions. “The only salvation of the existence itself of the state Republic of Moldova is the replacement of the current political class, through early elections in democratic conditions, with a government of popular trust, monitored by the UN and the international institutions”, is said in the resolution which is lower. The only salvation of the existence itself of the state Republic of Moldova is the replacement of the current political class, through early elections in democratic conditions, with a government of popular trust, monitored by the UN and the international institutions.
- com – Hurricane Moldova. Moldova’s Jan. 20 parliamentary vote to approve the new government ended nearly three months of political deadlock in a country that plays an important role in the competition between Russia and the West in the former Soviet periphery. The previous government, led by former Prime Minister Valeriu Strelet, collapsed Oct. 29, 2015 after Strelet lost a no-confidence vote over allegations of corruption. Protesters are still on the premises at the time of this writing, albeit in lesser numbers. Representatives of some smaller pro-West factions, such as the Civil Platform for Dignity and Truth and the party recently formed around former Education Minister Maia Sandu, have also gathered to protest the new government, accusing it of weakness and corruption given its ties to Plahotniuc. In the case of yet another government collapse, early elections probably would be unavoidable and would give Moldova’s pro-Russia elements the chance to stall, if not reverse, Moldova’s efforts to integrate with the European Union.