Political Forecast – Election Predictions
BSSB.BE Political Forecast – Election Predictions 25.10.2018
* Democrats have a notably small lead, given their hopes of taking back the House of Representatives in November.
How could the midterms affect Donald Trump?
The midterm elections are being held halfway through Donald Trump’s presidential term, and the make-up of Congress’s two chambers could impact his ability to govern.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for election this year, 26 are held by Democrats (including two independents allied to them) and nine by Republicans.
In total, the US Senate is made up of 51 Republican seats and 47 Democrats, plus those two independents.
This means that the Democrats need to keep all of their seats and win back two from the Republicans – but 10 of the Dems’ seats are in states which Trump won in the 2016 US Election.
In the lower chamber of Congress, the Democrats need to pick up 20 seats to control the House of Representatives.
Weeks after meeting Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Trump claimed that Russia will try to rig the midterms against him, because he’s been “tough” on them.
The US President tweeted: “I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming Election.
“Based on the fact that no President has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats. They definitely don’t want Trump!”
A Congress controlled by the Democrats will oppose the funding his border wall with Mexico, block further tax cuts and stop his attempts to repeal Obamacare.
It would also see the party gain seats on Congressional committees with the power to investigate the Trump administration.
Most importantly though, if the Democrats seized control of the House, they could trigger articles of impeachment – the legal process which can remove a sitting president from office.
Democrats and Republicans have very different opinions about what we should be worried about when it comes to allegations of sexual assault
The Washington Post/Schar School poll also asked respondents in battleground districts about their views on sexual assault allegations and now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose nomination was marred by accusations of sexual misconduct and assault, which he denied.
- Around six in 10 likely voters in both the Democratic and Republican parties said the fight over Kavanaugh increased their motivation to vote in the midterms, and half of independents said it motived them to go to the polls.
- Pollsters also surveyed voters on what worries them more about sexual assault allegations: that women won’t be believed, or that men will be falsely accused. Ninety-eight percent of Democrats said they are concerned that women won’t be believed when they report sexual assault, compared to 63 percent of Republicans.
- On the flip side, 76 percent of Republicans said they’re more worried men will be falsely accused compared to 34 percent of Democrats. Overall, 78 percent of likely voters are worried about women being believed, and 57 percent about men they know being falsely accused.
Asked which is the bigger problem, 92 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents said women not being believed, while 69 percent of Republicans said false allegations against men was the bigger issue.
As Vox’s Anna North recently pointed out, made-up sexual assault cases are very rare — experts estimate that between 2 and 8 percent of sexual assault reports are false:
It’s difficult to determine exactly how many men have been falsely accused, but extrapolating from the number of men in America and the percentage of false reports (even using the highest estimates), it’s likely that fewer than 0.005 percent of American men are falsely accused each year.
- The publication is not an editorial. It reflects solely the point of view and argumentation of the author. The publication is presented in the presentation. Start in the previous issue. The original is available at: Political Forecast – Election Predictions