1. Buenos dias, G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires
BSSB.BE cfr.org 30/11/2018
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*The G20 Tango: What to Expect From the Buenos Aires Summit
The Group of Twenty (G20), which meets in Buenos Aires, Argentina, for its annual summit on November 30 and December 1, is celebrating an auspicious birthday. It is turning ten. This milestone is an appropriate moment to reflect on what the group has and has not accomplished—as well as what role it can hope to play in an age of rising nationalism and expanding geopolitical competition.
The G20 Record
It was in November 2008, during the depths of the Great Recession, that President George W. Bush convened an emergency summit of the world’s main economic powers. The elevation of the G20 to the leaders’ level was a watershed in global governance. For the first time, the most important established and emerging nations met as ostensibly equal partners at the apex of multilateral summitry. The event reflected a new reality. Western governments could no longer hope to resolve international economic crises themselves. They needed a more encompassing body that included rising nations.
- The G20 is now an annual fixture—and little wonder. Its members represent two thirds of the world’s population, generate 85 percent of global GDP, and account for 75 percent of international trade.
- Because it is more flexible and less encompassing than formal, treaty-based institutions, the G20 has the potential to act more nimbly and (at least in principle) transcend stultifying bloc politics that afflict the United Nations and other universal membership organizations.
So how has the G20 performed? Its glory days were surely 2009–2010, when it operated as a global crisis committee. It generated sufficient liquidity to ease the credit crunch, reinvigorated the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, created a new Financial Stability Board, and supported new capital requirements for major banks. It was less impressive thereafter, as a would-be steering committee for the global economy. It failed to arrest trade protectionism, to foster macroeconomic coordination, or to spearhead a post-carbon economy. Its very heterogeneity often impeded agreement, particularly as authoritarian China and Russia began to flex their muscles in strategic competition with the West.
What most threatens the G20 today is less geopolitics, however, than populist nationalism. The world’s recovery from the financial crisis has been uneven, squeezing middle classes within the developed world in particular. At annual summits, leaders of the G20 have repeatedly committed themselves to promoting sustained, broadly shared growth. But they have not made credible national commitments to advance this goal, and the leaders of Western democracies have failed to persuade skeptical national publics of the enduring value of an open, rule-bound international system.
Until last year, the G20 could depend on the United States to be its greatest champion. All that changed with the arrival of America’s first post-war “America First” president. At the 2017 summit in Hamburg, Germany, Donald J. Trump rattled G20 partners by refusing to reject protectionism or to endorse the Paris Climate Accord.
The gathering “had been pitched as one of the most tense get-togethers of world leaders in many years,” the Guardian noted. “It did not disappoint.”
The Buenos Aires meeting could be tenser still. It comes on the heels of a disastrous G7 summit in Charlevoix, Canada, in June. That meeting collapsed into acrimonythanks to Trump, as the formerly close Western allies could not even agree on a final communiqué. In order to keep the United States on board in Argentina, its G20 partners have reportedly reduced their ambitions on issues sensitive for the White House, notably climate and trade.
The Buenos Aires Agenda
Over the years, the G20’s formal agenda has expanded, as host governments and national bureaucracies have added new ornaments to the proverbial “Christmas tree.” Beyond macroeconomic coordination, the G20 has ongoing initiatives designed to: empower women, fight corruption, strengthen financial governance, improve fairness of the global tax system, cooperate on trade and investment, advance climate action, and transition toward cleaner, more flexible, and transparent energy systems.
Argentina has identified three priorities for its own presidency, under the broad theme, “building consensus for fair and sustainable development.”
- The future of work. Rapid technological change poses dilemmas for all G20 members. The potential impact of automation on employment is perhaps the most volatile of these. Governments face the challenges of preparing workforces for higher-skilled jobs and expanding social safety nets as entire sectors threaten to disappear. G20 leaders are anxious to avoid winner-take-all scenarios in which some countries—not least China—seize the commanding heights of artificial intelligence and other innovations, leaving others far below and far behind.
- Infrastructure for development. A glaring gap in global infrastructure is one of the main impediments to achieving the globally agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). According to the G20, the world must invest nearly $100 trillion through 2030 in roads, ports, airports, dams, power plants, pipelines, rail corridors, electricity grids, digital networks, and the like if the SDGs are to be achieved. Mobilizing these funds will require leveraging massive but currently untapped private capital from institutional investors. One of the biggest official sources of infrastructure financing is China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Other G20 countries will seek reassurances from China about the implications of BRI financing on partner nations’ debt levels, governance, and susceptibility to Chinese influence.
- Food security. Argentina’s third priority is “a sustainable food future.” Together, G20 countries account for nearly 60 percent of the world’s agricultural land and 80 percent of its trade in food and farm commodities. Over the next three decades, food production must double to meet projected population growth and dietary changes. The challenge is to feed the world without killing the environment, so that crops and livestock do not denude nations of forests and deplete already overburdened aquifers and rivers. Argentina, which has made tremendous strides in agricultural productivity, is well-positioned to lead this conversation.
- The publication is not an editorial. It reflects solely the point of view and argumentation of the author. The publication is presented in the presentation. Start in the previous issue. The original is available at: cfr.org