1. What has happened in Hamburg?
The two-day annual meeting of the G20—the leaders of the world’s 19 wealthiest nations plus the European Union — has wrapped up in Hamburg, Germany with a closing speech from its host. The G-20 comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, France, Britain, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S. and the European Union.
Also attending were the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Guinea, Senegal, Singapore and Vietnam.
- G20 accounts for just over 58% of global GDP, though that’s down from a peak of 60.9% before the 2008 financial crisis. The G20 members contribute 85% of global GDP. In the nearly 20 years since the group was formed, the US has remained the leader, but China has moved up the ranks, from the sixth largest economy in 2000 to the third today, behind only the US and EU.
These nations’ consumers buy the bulk of goods produced by the world’s largest companies, because they make up two-thirds of the global population and have the most spending power per capita.
- Despite several years of middle-class wage stagnation, the US still leads the world in per capita GDP, both in absolute terms and based on purchasing power parity (a measure of how much consumers can buy based on the cost of goods where they live).
Readers may remember that G20 was an extension of the G7 and was formed after the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s when it became obvious that “global financial issues could no longer be managed” in traditional ways. Or, that’s how former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers and his research assistant, Matthew Schoenfeld, explained in a 2012 article. “It is said one should visit one’s doctor before one has a serious medical problem,” they wrote. “It is in this way that the first decade of meetings of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will be remembered.”
Germany presided the G20 Summit this year, and put on the agenda topics like the climate change, free trade, and helping migrants and refugees that are important for all but not so for the US president, Donald Trump. The latter has already rowed with Europe once over climate change and refugees at the G7 summit in Italy. He has also visited Poland – Europe’s rogue guy that is also the region’s greatest carbon emitter – ahead of the G20 Summit, perhaps symbolizing once again his uneasy relationship with the EU.
Early in the week, German chancellor Angela Merkel criticized the Trump administration’s protectionism, saying “globalization is seen by the American administration more as a process that is not about a win-win situation but about winners and losers.” There are few options but to make a success of globalization, Merkel warned earlier in a report laying out the meeting’s priorities. “There can be no return to a pre-globalization world.”
On climate change, Merkel has prepared the ground carefully, hosting in Berlin the two allies she needed – the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, and the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang. China remains the single largest emitter of carbon, and India, the third. Both countries have said they will not pull out of the Paris treaty, and will beat their commitments.
Merkel is also concerned about Africa and genuinely fears that long term demographic trends mean 100 million Africans could come to Europe driven by climate change, poverty for which Europe is totally unprepared. Combating poverty upstream in Africa to curb the flow of mass migrants to Europe downstream is her guiding idea. Her specific initiative is to team up African nations which have committed to economic reforms with private investors who would then bring jobs and businesses.
Saturday’s agenda featured discussions on partnerships between the G-20 and Africa, on migration and health. There was also a discussion on digitalization, empowering women and unemployment.
As hinted above, a key focus of this year’s summit has been how the member states position themselves on global trade and climate change. The host, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said after the first day of meetings that discussions on trade were very difficult and that differences on climate change were clear.
According to the latest reports in the news media, despite some objections from the USA, G20 has agreed on the fundamentals and that the just-released joint communique is a ‘G20 communique, not a G19 communique’. However, the tone of the communique shows clearly that the USA remained an outlier on the climate issue.
On climate issue, it states, “We take note of the decision of the United States of America to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The United States of America announced it will immediately cease the implementation of its current nationally-determined contribution and affirms its strong commitment to an approach that lowers emissions while supporting economic growth and improving energy security needs.
The United States of America states it will endeavour to work closely with other countries to help them access and use fossil fuels more cleanly and efficiently and help deploy renewable and other clean energy sources, given the importance of energy access and security in their nationally determined contributions.
The Leaders of the other G20 members state that the Paris Agreement is irreversible. We reiterate the importance of fulfilling the UNFCCC commitment by developed countries in providing means of implementation including financial resources to assist developing countries with respect to both mitigation and adaptation actions in line with Paris outcomes and note the OECD’s report “Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth”. We reaffirm our strong commitment to the Paris Agreement, moving swiftly towards its full implementation in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances and, to this end, we agree to the G20 Hamburg Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth as set out in the Annex.”
As can be seen the US did successfully manage to insert text referencing fossil fuels. It will be the only country in the world not signed up to the landmark 2015 Paris Accord other than Nicaragua, which complained that it wasn’t strong enough, and Syria, currently mired in a bloody civil war. Trump’s administration has sought to unravel domestic climate policies by dismantling the clean power plan, which would slash emissions from coal-fired power plants, halting new emissions standards for cars and trucks and opening up new areas of public lands and oceans to mining and drilling.
On women empowerment, the communique reads, “Enhanced equal access to the labour market, property, quality employment and financial services for women and men are fundamental for achieving gender equality and full realisation of their rights as well as a prerequisite for sustainable and inclusive growth. We are making progress in achieving our 2014 Brisbane commitment to reduce the gender gap in labour force participation by 25 percent by 2025 but agree that more needs to be done. We also commit to take further action to improve the quality of female employment and eliminate employment discrimination, and reduce gender compensation gaps and provide women with protection from all forms of violence. We will improve women´s access to labour markets through provision of quality education and training, supporting infrastructure, public services and social protection policies and legal reforms, where appropriate.”
On food security, the communique reads, “Recognising the famine in some areas of South Sudan and risk of famine in Somalia, Yemen and North-Eastern Nigeria, we are more than ever committed to act with the required urgency, supporting UN agencies and other humanitarian and development organisations in a coordinated and comprehensive response to save lives and support conditions for sustainable development…
We will further strengthen our humanitarian engagement and reaffirm our commitment to addressing the underlying causes of recurrent and protracted crises.”