Moldova’s Instability. Romania’s Opportunity
BSSB.BE stratfor.com 18.12.2015
Political and economic instability in Moldova could be an opportunity for Romania to pull the country out of Russia’s sphere of influence and deepen the relationships within the EU system, the American agency Stratfor commented.
“Since 2009, the Moldovan government headed for the European integration of Moldova. However, political cleavage – mainly between pro-European parties (the Democratic Party and the Liberal Democratic Party) and the pro-Russian (Communist Party and the Socialist Party) – generated a significant political impasse in Chisinau, “said Stratfor, an institute based in the US city of Austin.
“Moldova’s aspirations to join the European Union suffered a major blow recently when pro-European Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici resigned. (…) Moldova was already in a major economic crisis. The fall of the Gaburici Government stopped the economic programs of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Moreover, the European Union announced on July 7 the suspension of funding for Moldova until the new government is formed. Pro-European parties have announced their intention to form a new government by the end of July, but deep divisions remain, “said Stratfor, according to Mediafax.
“This is in the interests of Russia, which tried to block Moldova’s efforts towards EU integration, just as it did for Ukraine. Significant Russian military presence in the pro-Russian breakaway regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia gives Russia an important leverage to influence Chisinau, “writes Stratfor.
“However, the political crisis in Moldova – particularly the increasingly larger financial difficulties of the country – could provide an opportunity for Romania.
Moldova’s precarious economic situation which the public thinks is mainly caused by corruption, might explain why the recent demonstrations in favor of reunification with Romania were some of the largest in recent years, “notes the US agency in their report.
– “Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, did not meet with the protesters, but noted the march for reunification and later said that people on both sides of the Prut River will find themselves one day not only in the EU but also in the same community ?
- Such declarations show that Romania’s political leaders are advocating reunification, but that Bucharest remains a key supporter of deepening relations with Moldova in the context of the European Union “, argues Stratfor.
“Romania is in a good position to provide financial assistance given that it understands the situation in Moldova and has the strategic interest of removing Chisinau from Moscow’s orbit.
However, even if present conditions offer Romania this opportunity, Bucharest is aware of the barriers faced in its efforts to strengthen its influence over Chisinau. For many years, Russia has been the largest trading partner of the Republic of Moldova, the politically motivated trade restrictions led to a decline in Moldovan exports to Russia, generating the increase of exports to the EU, in particular to Romania, “says Stratfor.
“The increasingly larger financial deficiencies in Moldova and Romania’s ability and willingness to alleviate some of the country’s economic problems could make this topic become one of great interest to both parties in the future,” concludes Stratfor .
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